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tv   Fast Money Halftime Report  CNBC  February 8, 2013 12:00pm-1:00pm EST

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1-800-345-2550 with a $50,000 deposit. tdd# 1-800-345-2550 call 1-877-656-8765 tdd# 1-800-345-2550 and open an account, tdd# 1-800-345-2550 now with no trade minimums. one of our guests in the last hour drawing a lot of attention on twitter. rachel fox, the 16-year-old "desperate housewives" actress, revealed some of her investing advice. take a listen. >> i don't necessarily trade a stock like apple quite as much because it is so -- people are always talking about it. someone's always speculating on it. it's always been swayed by
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someone's opinion or some piece of news. >> you guys seemed to love her. here's how the twitterverse reacted. please get icahn on to debate rachel fox. another says, actually rachel fox is quite a good swing trader, she buys and shorts. already ahead of 99% of investors. and al writes, don't underestimate rachel fox. a very young man's wrath. she's wipe you up and wring you out. take a look at moody's before we go. we had senator blumenthal on earlier who suggested that justice might eventually sue them as well. stocks down almost 5.5%. have a good weekend. stay out of the snow. let's get to headquarters and the "halftime." thanks very much. welcome to the "halftime" show. green arrows across the board on wall street. the dow's trying to push back towards 14,000. there it is. a gain of some 50 points.
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s&p and nasdaq positive as well. social climbers, what does linkedin's blowout quarter and its surging stock mean for facebook and the sector's other big players? golden goldman, the stock's up 50% over the past six months. should you keep loading up or is it time to take some profits? the top story, stocks stall. after hitting new highs, the markets have gone next to nowhere over the past two weeks, especially the dow. but is there new evidence the economy is a little better than we all thought and does it mean it's time to buy stocks? we're trading today's action with brian kelly, josh brown, steve weiss and jon najarian. how about that, steve? >> it's normal. markets don't go up in a straight line. we're on the cusp of having the first negative week that we've had since january 1, since the beginning of the year. to me, that's very, very healthy. i still see not green shoots but flowers blooming. we have lots more upside. i talked to steve liesman
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referencing his, i guess, gauge for how the market is doing, whether it's overvalued. he was talking about negative real rates return. so the fear trade is still front and center. people are still afraid to put money in the market. i bet it loosens up. >> josh brown, is it time to buy stocks? is the economy a little bit better than we all thought? >> i would caution anyone who makes buy-and-sell decisions based on things like gdp. correlation is basically zero. i think instead of trying to time the market based on this or that employment report, focus on what your plan is, what kind of rates of return you need in order to retire, work backwards, when you do that, it's hard to come up with a scenario where stocks are not going to be a piece of the puzzle. that's really the discussion you need to have with yourself. if you don't get the timing perfectly on your first entrance, i promise you it's not the end of the world. >> there certainly has been more bullish sentiment on this desk than bearishness? >> yes. and a lot of folks have been doing what we preach here all
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the time. they've been taking profits off the table in stocks. and they've been rolling into derivatives. whether it's an etf, which is a derivative, of course, because it's going to carry a basket of stocks in it. or whether it's derivatives that i trade all day, which are, of course, options. look at what happened this week. you had people citing all this activity in the xlf. and they were put options but they didn't look over and see that the people bought a heck of a lot of stock along with it. in other words, people are buying protection when they're buying puts. and they were getting long the market by virtue of that etf in the financials. people misread that because there's a lot of people that are late to the party, don't really know what's going on. and i think they're going to continue to chase the market. >> brian kelly, is the economy a little better than we thought? is it time to buy stocks? >> i think we're probably in the last leg here. if you're a trader like us, yeah, you could probably buy some stocks here. s&p 500, probably going to be 1,580. i think it's the last leg. i would not look at the gdp.
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the market doesn't care about last year's gdp. the market is looking three, six months ahead. everybody's worried about the sequester. what's happening year up and as well as any possible tax increases. >> do the traders have it right? let's bring in steve liesman. steve, you've had a listen to what the traders have to say. there was some data out this morning that suggests that that lousy gdp number wasn't great, wasn't as lousy. >> you know, my 99% agreement with the traders is going to take a serious statistical decline right now. i'm in bold disagreement with, first of all, josh saying if you don't follow the gdp numbers -- i think if you don't -- >> i said don't follow -- >> 70% of stock movement is on the macro call here. even more so than -- what is the beta out there? most stocks move together as a unit in sync with -- >> let me clarify. i agree with you. it's important to follow.
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what i'm saying is don't time bias and sells. >> i agree with that. >> china grew at 7% last year, the shanghai was down. greece had gdp shrink and the market was up 30%. how can we possibly say there's a statistical correlation to stock market -- >> you do want to be on the right side of the curve -- >> you want to be aware. >> more than aware. >> greece had shrinking gdp and its stock market went up 30% last year. >> right. but what's the six-month call on that? do you want to be on the wrong side of an expanding economy? do you want to be shorting the stock market into an expanding economy? do you want to be long into -- >> you want to be aware of it. but i don't think it's -- >> you want to be aware of lots of data. you don't want to look at one data point. >> especially one that's revised every single time it comes out. >> i agree with that. but you have to make a call on the direction of the economy. that's why i think the fourth-quarter discussion is important. let's see what happened this morning. the gdp -- the trade number came in much better than was originally estimated by the government. so what happened is you went
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from a -- there's the number. the trade deficit was minus $38.5 billion. a $10 billion improvement from november. the consensus and the estimate by the government was about $45 billion. so there's $10 billion -- $8 billion of additional gdp out there. what that ends up doing is adding 0.7% or 0.8% to the gdp. the negative number in the fourth quarter was positive -- it's positive right now. but that was not what i came here to talk to you about. that's not really the anomaly i care about. what we have is an interesting conundrum or dilemma or debate between jobs on the one hand, on growth on the other. let me show you this chart i put together just for you guys here. look at what happened to jobs. in the four quarters up to the third quarter, you had growth -- job growth of 540,000 per quarter and gdp growth of 2.5%, 2.6%. in the fourth quarter, you had
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job growth at 537,000. but what's the gdp number? there it is. r minus 0.1%. >> you think the job market may be getting worse? >> i think it's the opposite. >> what is the right answer here? >> it's going to be getting much better. i think you're going to see a monstrous jobs number come out -- >> you guys should be buying the market. >> i am. >> where's the issue then? you guys should be buying stocks. >> there's no issue for me. >> there is no issue. i think you should be buying stocks and i think the market's going to be surprised by the strength of the jobs number as they were by the revisions. >> there's two pieces of evidence out there. the 3.1% in the third quarter. the negative 0.1% in the fourth. and i think the market is waiting for something to break the tie. that's really the question we have right now. the incoming revision data -- >> a monstrous jobs number would be terrible for the number. this whole thing is built on low interest rates.
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i disagree with you guys on that. >> i'm going to disagree with that only because, listen for a second, those are people that own bonds cqueuing up at the starting gates to go in equities once the company starts improving. and equities go up when interest rates start going up because the sense is the economy's getting -- >> can i just give a little piece of information i got from evans yesterday in chicago? this is the gain. what you guys think, evans is incredibly interested in it lt he wants to know how you answer this fear from b.k. over here. evans wants you to believe that if you get a monstrous jobs number, they are not going to tighten. and whether or not they are winning that psychological battle with you is the absolute key, scotty, to the fed policy and whether or not it works. >> we know -- hang on, b.k. we know if it's up to evans, they're not going to be tightening anytime soon because he's been one of the most dovish
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members and he's been consistent in his commentary -- >> it's more than evans. it's bernanke and there are others. i think the center of the board is in favor of this policy of, we are going to keep the policy the way it is even with the big number that steve's talking about. >> steve, thanks so much. >> my pleasure. e-mail me and let me know what you're talking about. will europe's emerging problems bring the rally to an abrupt halt? let's bring in gemma. thank you for being with us. >> thank you very much. >> you watch the markets closely it does appear as though there's a little more skepticism lately on what's going on over in europe. would you agree? >> yeah, caution is definitely coming back into the markets because more is needed for stability. what we're talking about is growth. a lot of investors are concerned where we going to see growth from. we saw the german domestic demand disappoint recently.
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germany's been one of the linchpins of growth. if that's growing, where are we going to see growth in the region come? and with respect to spain and italy, we've seen risk resurgence there. an outlet for possibly a hung parliament in italy. we still have huge question marks over a banking union, whether they're going to move forward with reform and with unity. what that means is we feel that market elation has been a little bit too early, move a little bit too far. and there are these potholes that could cause markets to stumble, at least in the shorter term. >> it is surprising how the european market has managed to stay above all of that. it was up again today. our markets have largely been brushing anything over in europe off for the last several months. and the question really is, how long can that last from a u.s. stocks standpoint? >> exactly. uncertainty, markets do not like uncertainty.
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and the longer this continues, the longer the uncertainty is over the markets, the more likely it is it will have a pullback. there's an interesting statistic that's been bandied around about the u.s. stock market. it's approaching 500 days since we've seen a 10%-plus correction in markets. and it makes it the tenth longest time in u.s. history that the markets have gone this time without a pullback. and it means when we're looking at where valuations are, they're no longer cheap with respect to the u.s. market, growth doesn't come through as you thought it would. and we have this level of uncertainty that means that these momentum followers, the hedge funds are buying into financials, that they're going to start to stumble. >> josh? >> i guess i would want to ask you a question about, don't you agree that we're all aware of the issues in europe but hedge funds are now rushing in to take private pieces of debt deals off the hands of the banks? there's liquidity meeting every
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one of these challenges. you've got every central bank in the world now emulating the fed. just for the near term, how is it that you think one of these cracks is going to appear and change the game, given that everyone is waiting for that moment to do more buying? >> i agree. i do think that that means if we do see a correction, it could be muted because it will be a fantastic buying opportunity for those looking to rotate back into risk assets. over the longer term, we're more bullish about equities. you're in a low interest rate environment, credit spreads are at multi-year lows. and it is a return -- we are looking at a return to growth. what it means in the shorter term, what could be the potholes? italian elections, banking union. we still don't have a banking resolution mechanism on the table meaning that if the ecb takes over, they will not have any authority. we still don't have a single deposit guarantee scheme, meaning that we need to see confidence come back into the
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markets to encourage depositors to deposit their assets back within the periphery countries. we haven't seen that yet. all of that gives us slight cause for concern. we're growing more cautious shorter term, more bullish longer term. >> gemma thanks for coming on. is linkedin the social stock to own this year? and is the bottom in on apple after the company comments about returning cash to shareholders? we're heading to the floor of the nyse for the answer when we come back. with fidelity's new options platform, we've completely integrated every step of the process, making it easier to try filters and strategies... to get a list of equity options... evaluate them with our p&l calculator... and execute faster with our more intuitive trade ticket. i'm greg stevens
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why would you want to bet against the company that's literally on a rampage, a financial rampage, is the way it's been phrased? look, every quarter since they've come public, they've beaten earnings. this is a company that's challenging facebook for having what i would consider the most defensible social network. >> that company that josh was talking about, right there, linkedin. the stock hitting all-time highs today after beating on earnings. the social networking site getting an upgrade at clsa and a slew of increased estimates. good call. >> maybe it's redemption for my terribly blase call on not liking netflix. >> the point is this is the most
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bankable name in social media as a trader or an investor. >> i think so. a lot of interesting stuff came out in the course of them reporting the quarter. but the analyst commentary today, they're talking about best case scenarios in the 200s as far as where this stock could trade given certain things lining up over time. if you're an investor, you want to focus on the fact that, it's not a cheap stock and it hasn't been but they continue to beat, they continue to shock the street. and, frankly, i don't think the street has caught up to the real momentum here fundamentally, not momentum in stock price but actual momentum in revenue, in earnings, in adding subscribers, in adding services, more than 2,000 corporations are paying them for the recruitment services. where could that number go? 5,000, 10,000? >> they're figuring it out. that's what cramer said this morning. they're figuring it out. they figured out what other
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people have not been able to figure out yet. >> yes. and it's a bold statement sto say the street hasn't caught up with it when you take a look at valuation. but what's surprising is that facebook is not up really in the way of linkedin. so the street's clearly making bets in terms of who's got mobile right and who doesn't have mobile right. and they'll continue to reward the winners. >> there's no comparison between the two, at least at this point. >> none at all. they've got global and mobile. i'm not just saying that because they rhyme. what linkedin is doing so well, it's also a great place for people to mine data. they go in there and look at who are the companies who are hiring, who are the companies who everybody's all of a sudden reached out and wants to friend or whatever it is on linkedin, wants to touch their friend from high school or college because that company is probably one that's going to be downsizing if all of a sudden all these people -- >> it's a great day. you can go on there and see what somebody's resume, where they've worked -- >> and they basically own the
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recruitment market. for anyone looking for a job, for companies looking for help, look at a chart of monster worldwide -- >> is this green light to buy other social stocks? >> no. very unique story. this doesn't spill over into the other social names. >> will david einhorn's lawsuit be good for apple shareholders? an analyst at goldman sachs says he thinks so. he says it highlights apple's significant capabilities for increased capital allocation. what are traders citying about it? steve grasso is standing by on the floor of the new york stock exchange. welcome back. >> thank you. >> bottom line, this note says the chances of apple returning cash is better than ever maybe right now. >> that's it right there. with the conversation started, it's been on everyone's mind about where this cash is going to be allocated to. it got the conversation on the front burner once again. apple has jumped from that 4$43 level around january 24, 25th.
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it's brought the dialogue into the annual investor meeting. people want to know where it's going. people are excited about it. you're not going to sell the stock ahead of that meeting, you're not going to sell the stock until you find out buyback, dividend, what the story is. >> did einhorn just put a floor under the stock? >> i don't know about a floor. but going into the meeting, going into february 27th, i think there's going to be a floor put on the stock until we find out some closure as to what's happening to it. but goldman said it. there's a bunch of different opportunities. they don't want to do the preferred. there's still a lot of other tools in their arsenal. >> grasso, would you agree that the only thing wrong with apple was they needed some deer antler spray and a b12 shot and i believe that continues into next week on the 12th when tim cook will be speaking at that goldman conference? not a surprise that goldman's talking about them here in their note today. >> absolutely. the only problem in goldman's
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note is they're talking about a quicker product cycle. i think that people are a little frustrated with rollouts of iphones where you feel -- i just bought one, what's the incentive for me to buy this new one? i don't necessarily agree with goldman's note that the quicker product cycle will help. more products will help. but we've seen that already. i think all the hoopla is right now. dividend, buybacks, end of story, technical bounce. the name, i'm still long it. >> apple could make more news next week. grasso, thank you. grasso mentioned the tech conference next week -- >> scott, one more thing. just as important when you see where the money is going and where it's being taken from, look at amazon's stock. apple's run directly hurt amazon. same time frame. >> again, want to remind everybody, we're going to be doing "halftime" live from the goldman sachs technology conference out in san francisco on tuesday. apple's there. so many other huge technology companies are there. we'll have it all for you next tuesday.
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let's hit the biggest "pops & drops" today in midday trading. activision getting a pop. >> they beat in a big way on top line and bottom line. and then they've got a couple of upgrades, stern agee. this is a big one. >> aol? >> a rough couple of months. but something interesting is going on with aol. they come out, they have a 57% increase in earnings. you've got 13% short interest. but the thing that everyone laughs at them about are their dial-up subs. that business has stopped shrinking and accounts for all of the profit at company. now they're selling additional services. stock looks interesting. >> dollar tree? >> yeah. the dollar stores have really gotten crushed particularly by walmart. probably a bit oversold here. looking like some better numbers. i heard some chatter that steve
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weiss bought a whole bunch of tube socks. should help the top line. >> phillips? >> my guess is it keeps going. but there are cheaper plays. >> a drop for entergy. the company now says it in fact dropped the ball during last sunday's super bowl, six days after it will lights went out at the superdome, the utility says it's found a cause of the failure, a faulty relay device specifically installed to prevent blackouts. there is light at the end of the tunnel. entergy promises it's working to fix the problem. coming up on "halftime," a warning for investors, if you're st thinking about playing silver and gold. it's not for amateurs. we'll talk heavy metal. and is it time to take the money and run? two traders, two opinions, one big debate is coming up next.
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as we make the turn. it's time for our top three trades on "halftime." first up, redbox operator coinstar beating on fourth-quarter earnings. revenue, though, falling short. guidance wasn't good either. >> this is one where i sold out of the money puts on this one, too. luckily it didn't get down and violate the levels i'm sure the puts had. but i had the read wrong on this one. i thought it would hang in there. i thought this deal with verizon with 144 million subscribers would carry them. i still believe it will. so i'll look to get back in on the long side. but right now, i'm short puts. >> steve, not good lately for
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mcgraw-hill. the stock's down at 1.5%? >> not good at all. unlike other lawsuits where you can quantify the ultimate damage, here we're talking about basically possibly survival of the company. i think it's best to stay away from this completely. don't try to trade it. >> b.k., what's going on with mcdonald's? by the commentary, you would think the stock would be lower because of weaker sales. over in asia, though, the u.s. getting a little bit of a pick-up. >> and there was some commentary asia might pick up even as the u.s. market picks up. underneath the hood, didn't look so bad. probably worth a trade on the long side. i don't think it makes new highs by any means. but worth a fast money trade. >> any buys on the desk on mcdonald's here? >> i happen to like it. but i think you can hold off and see if you can get it more like 90 rather than 95.
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but when you get this stock in particular, getting bad news as they got clearly with this 1.9 drop and it doesn't go down, it tells you a lot about -- >> this is the third quarter in a row -- >> tells you a lot about the weak hands washed out already. >> the buyers come in on bad news. they come in on good news. they want to own this name. they want the dividend. they want the stability. they like the global exposure. it's really hard for the stock to go down. >> if you're considering buying gold, you may want to think twice. cnbc's kate kelly joins us with a warning for investors. how's it going? >> going well. but i think the commodities boom as we have known it at least from the late 2000s may be well dead or dying. take a look at the performance of the gsci. performance flattened after a huge surge in 2008. as oil features were hitting $1.50 investors of all stripes piled into commodities looking at figures for the over-the-counter commodities derivatives. you can see the volume peaked at
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that same time and has dived since. check out the volumes for the gld and the slv as well. they tell the same story even as prices for those metals have remained relatively high. this weak, we heard amid flagging returns, some of the pension funds that join the commodities bandwagon at the top are backing out. calpers is backing out. and caltrs is backing out as well. you have to pick your spots and be patient. you can do it through stocks with commodities exposure. other big players like schroder's likes the economic supercycle. and of course others like physical gold. as a hedge against inflation, a guarantee of purchasing power. these guys almost see it more as a currency than a commodity.
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>> funny thing is credit suisse was out with a note lately as well saying the gold era is coming to an end. you guys are trading these stocks -- >> i think this is really important for investors. let's distinguish between trading and investing. what kate's story is about are companies that said, this is a new investment for us, we're going to invest in higher commodity prices. for traders, there's always one commodity working and one not working and opportunities. for investors, the question is, can you just buy the crv index and count on this rise across the board? there are 19 different commodities in there. the answer is no. that's the difference. it's going to be the separation of returns for different commodities. >> i'd also make a few other distinctions in addition to that. if you go to why they're pulling their money out, you've had big commodity fund blow-ups. two big down years, the money comes out -- >> they were down 34% in '11.
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they closed early last year. one of their principals is starting to restart a hedge fund. >> good luck to him. they've had tough times also. but you have to look at grains. you separate grains out from gold and from the hard commodities, from the precious metals. and there -- >> they're all different. >> those are going to work because the world needs to eat. and we know that with china moving more -- >> if you were long corn or wheat in the last couple of years w chan years, chances are, you did pretty well. the concern is if you're just going to buy the index, the era of deep contango may be over. you have to pick your spots or trade in and out more defini definitely. >> it's not a monolithic trade anymore. >> b.k., your opinion on these stocks? >> the index will be weighted towards oil. there's a ton of oil out there.
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blindly by the gsce, not a good idea. love the grains, though. >> the other question about gold is when you look at these equities, are they paying dividends or taking care of shareholders, the same stuff we heard from einhorn about apple this week, could apply to the gold miners of the world. there's a lot of potential there if they do the right thing. coming up on the "halftime," account run in goldman continue? one trader says yes. the other says, no way. after a nice run this year, is a broad market selloff just around the corner? we have the three things you need to watch so you can protect your money when "halftime" comes back. ts of people go by themselves. no they don't. hey son. have fun tonight. ♪ ♪ back against the wall ♪ ain't nothin to me ♪ ain't nothin to me [ crowd murmurs ] hey! ♪
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welcome back. goldman's had a big run this year. up more than 18% in just over a month. but is it time to take some profits? weiss, the bull. doc's the bear. 1:30 on the clock. >> here's the story. i can sum it up in one word, culture. it's got the strongest culture on wall street. and culture is one of the main underpinnings of any company. they're better positioned than they have ever been. lots of competition going out of
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the market. and they've navigated this whole crisis extraordinarily well and if you notice, it stayed together. their investment banking, the top bank on the street. they don't have the luggage of huge retail that turned into a cost center. i think with asset management, private equity, banking, trading, it's going to be a phenomenal stock to own and it's cheap. >> i agree. i've worked with these guys for years. as you said, stephen, they're going to be losing one of the key management spots. that's o'neill who's stepping down. also compensation, a lot of the traders wait till february to move to other firms. i think that could be hitting them, along with the fact that hedge funds have been underperforming. goldman operates like a hedge fund. and a lot of the hedge funds are up only 1.2% -- >> their prime brokerage business is doing phenomenally well. >> they aren't making good money on it -- >> they are.
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as far as jim o'neill leaving, that's the beauty of goldman sachs, you've never felt the departure of a ceo. it's never fazed the company. >> perfect timing. josh brown, who made the more compelling argument on shares of goldman sachs? >> i think stephen did. i don't think that jim o'neill's departure is going to mean anything. this is the right environment for goldman. this is where they crush people. that's absolutely what's going on. they are going to win in most of their business lines. they've fired enough people that it will be really profitable. and as stephen mentioned, the market is really shallow. it's really them versus some hobbled competitors. >> never mind the run in the shares. you'd be a buyer right here? >> i think they're winning in almost everything that they do. the last couple of quarters bears that out. i don't see why the stock couldn't trade hotter. >> a once red hot trade is rolling over. high-yield corporate debt is
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trading. is this mini correction is sign of things to come for the broader market? mike santelli joins us now. why should we be watching this closer than we are? >> the credit strength, the strength in the credit markets has been the underpinning leading the charge of equities for years now. i think it's the front lines where risk appetite and liquidity come together and tell you how the overall markets are looking. i'm not an alarmist about this. obviously the treasury yields have backed up. spreads are up. but still at historically incredibly tight levels. to me, it's one of these things to watch, to show or maybe to tell us whether the overall market is taking on a more defensive cast. i think you're seeing that. you had 80% of all new york stock exchange stocks above their minimum. whether the market corrects or not, i don't think it's high
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confidence right now. but you're seeing it become a little bit more defensive on a short-term basis. and i think some of the small caps, they've flattened out. things like materials have also backed off. and you see things like china in a true pretty sharp correction. a lot of these offensive assets have pulled back a bit. >> michael, it's josh brown. i'm curious if you'd agree with this statement. obviously junk bonds have pulled back. we've seen a week and a half or so of some flows leaving. but isn't it true that in the end this market will trade based on two things -- interest rates and defaults? and defaults remain extraordinarily low in bottom tranche credits and it probably doesn't change in the near term. so maybe this back-up is where new money comes in that's been waiting for it? >> potentially. i agree with you. there's no way it falls apart without those two things going away. we can pretty much agree on that.
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but there's no value in the junk market. i think one of the things that you can maybe guess might happen is junk was considered the best of both worlds because you had zero yields, as far as the eye could see was the expectation. and you obviously had the low default vimpenvironment and you didn't want the risk of stocks. now it can become the worst of both worlds. 6% or lower on a junk bond is just not really paying you for anything great. if we have a great market and stocks do well, it's going to leave junk behind. there's not a high ceiling above it. i'm not alarmed about it. but you have to be cognizant of the fact that some of the props underneath the broad market, it's been very good and rotational and money hasn't flood the market, but you have to watch these things as cues for whether, as i admit, a very widely predicted correction might be taking hold. >> and watch them, we will. mike, thanks so much. have a good weekend. >> my pleasure. coming up, is one of this
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year's hot trades about to correct? your "money in motion" play is next. and from nuance to salesforce, we have what you asked for on twitter when "halftime" comes back. what are you doing? work? work. cdw configured these lenovo thinkpad ultrabooks with intel core i7 processors. so, we can work anywhere. anywhere? sure - on the beach, in the woods, at the lake. what about on the green? let's not get ahead of ourselves. oh!!! is moving backward. [ engine turns over, tires squeal ] and you'll find advanced safety technology like an available heads-up display on the 2013 lexus gs. there's no going back.
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let's hit a market flash now with josh lipton. what are you watching right now? >> check out the generator maker enjoying a pop from hurricane sandy. getting another lift from this storm we're now dealing with in the northeast. gnrc hit a new awetime high today, up more than 200% since its ipo in february 2010. one believer, ron barons, tells me there are three reasons for optimism on this one -- great management, dominant market share and an underpenetrated category. just 12% of homes have a portable generator. back to you. >> thanks, josh. we tend to only talk about this stock around storms, whether it's sandy or this current storm hitting the northeast. the stock has done quite well since the superstorm sandy hit. >> yeah. look, there were a lot of situations like this. we used to talk about the shaw group when there were hurricanes because they would put new roofs on houses. there was the irrigation from last summer when we had that
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drought that killed all the corn crops. this is the go-to stock that traders look for when there's going to be some kind of a battering that could force us to lose power. i have to tell you, i live in nassau county, long island, i went 12 days without power after sandy. after the guys i know have something on order from generac -- something interesting, rather than sitting around and waiting for storms, this company is being aggressive about taking their windfall and investing. i just bought a generator company in latin america. estimates are being raised on the back of that acquisition. i think it's a really interesting stock. >> jon, now i know how you feel when i talk. there's kohler and there's generac. the other coal stocks are down.
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it's the whole cold weather play that's going on. there are other ways to play it. >> the yen's plunge has been one of the hottest around lately. let's get more on the trade now. boris schlossberg joins us. i still hear people saying dollar/yen is the way to go? >> it may be long term. but short term, i think we're very much due for a correction. we came up against 94 twice this week. and last night had a pretty serious draft down. the japanese finance minister came out and said it came up too far too fast. the reason why the japanese are a little bit concerned about the yen weakening too fast is they have to pay for their energy bills with oil prices rising. they're playing this balance between making the yen weak enough for exports but not so weak that it's going to hurt their manufacturing basis. they want to see it around 90, 94 at this level and then see it
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come back down. i want to be a seller a 92 with a stop around 93.50. first stargtarget, 91.50. if it breaks 92, a lot of the long-term longs are going to start panicking and you're going to see stop/losses triggered to the downside. very much a correction in the near term. >> we did dollar/yen here. give me a read on whether the euro goes from here? >> last week, remember, i was bearish euro. and it worked out very well. we had the same kind of situation where draghi came on the wires and basically was much -- didn't overtly say he wanted a weak euro but covertly said it. i think euro is a sell in the rallies right now. they need to show the world that the eurozone is going to sustainably recover in order for the euro to run up. it's too high for the french. the key thing with the euro is if the french join the spanish and the italians in basically browbeating the ecb, the germans lose their power on making sure the euro stays strong.
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that's why the euro is a sell on the rallies until we get a better read on the eurozone. >> boris, thank you so much. tune in tonight at 5:30 for "money in motion." coming up on "halftime," find out what stock caused dr. "j's" pain and how he's managing his losing trade. you tweet it, we trade it. four plays on four stocks so you can make your next move.
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not so fast, dr. j. our traders are quick but not always right. let's listen to what john said about intel during a debate last month on the half. >> they have significant revenue coming in from other sources that they are going to be announcing this year and i think being the largest semi conductor maker in the world, bigger than samsung and ti combined, is still benefiting them going forward. >> well, shares are down since then, doc, about 7%. what do you do now? their outlook is weaker. that's one of the problems. and they are spending a lot. >> a $21 stock. collecting 13 sent a month selling out of the money, one strike out of the money calls. that's a 9% yield there, judge.
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i like it a lot. so have i done anything? yeah, basically i'm break even on the trade here because the stock is 21 bucks. look at where it was back then. it's basically just collecting -- >> are you subjecting it is a better options trade than it is a straight stock trade? >> if you have stock, like i had stock in this one, and you sell calls against it, i think it is a great revenue generator. you get 9% alone from selling those calls and stock pays you a dividend. was it a great trade? no. that's why it is not still on my portfolio. >> dell's largest independent shareholder is not what happy with a buyout bid on the company. southeastern management ownes a 7.5% stake and reportedly wants 20% of the share or higher. i did speak to shareholder richard pazina who also thinks the share should be in the 20s. weiss, what do you think on this? >> look, pzena has a smaller
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position. >> yeah. >> southeastern is the largest shareholder outside of dell, large independent shareholder. so, does it matter? >> it may not. the fundamental players come out. sell to the arbs, they come in and value it. if they think they can squeeze more out of it, they will vote their shares with southeastern and rich. but these things generally go through mp maybe there is a nod of another quarter. that could be likely but for a fundamental investor, it is not worth playing at this point in time. >> when you the viewers ask, we have four trades on stocks that lit up my twitter feed. first up, what's the trade? >> horrible guidance. company coming in, the stocks being hammered today. my three-day rule is i wait. don't catch the falling knife today. maybe i will catch the falling knife on tuesday but that the level i will wait for.
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>> steve, what do you do with emc? >> i like the company. they ever positioned in the right place, which is cloud. however it never really seems to move all that much. i never seem to be able to make money in it. i'm talking about holding it for a long time. it is almost like watching hair grow on doc's head. have you to be incredibly patient and not disappointed if it doesn't happen. i think there are other places it make money in the tech space. i'm just not enamored with it. >> okay, salesforce.com, what the trade? >> there are a lot of haters with valuation but they keep executing and people like the product. only problem at this point, it has come a long way. i'm not going as far as to say it is time to short it. but if there are significant profits, i would take it, maybe even call up doc j. >> jb, what about zillow? >> this is a winner. ranks 90 out of a hundred, which is half technical, half fundamental. an cheap stock but nothing in
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this group is. basically, if you're engaged in any part of real estate, whether rentals, home buying, et cetera. users are uploading photos with 50 million on the site and nothing exist like this and quite frankly with a market cap of 1.2 billion, i wouldn't be surprised if a content or media company snaps it up. if it is buy or sell, you buy. >> okay, final trades when we come back from this short break. man these guys are slow. reminds me of our network before cdw virtualized it. how? cdw and hp networking implemented a virtual application network that reduces the time to deploy cloud applications from months to minutes. with fewer bottlenecks like this. finally. charles! client golf. aim for the lake. really?
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